Quick Republican Scandal Guide

News has just come out that I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby, one of the most probable candidates for indictment in the ongoing "Plamegate" probe by special prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald, learned the identity of Valerie Plame and her status as a covert CIA operative from none other than his boss, Vice President Dick Cheney.

Although it remains highly unlikely that the VP himself will be indicted, that is a possibility if he lied under oath at any point regarding his involvement in the scandal. Also, if Cheney encouraged Libby to lie about his involvement, he could face indictment for obstruction of justice. Once again, neither of these outcomes are very probable, however with only three days remaining until Fitzgerald's grand jury expires (on the 28th), these new revelations regarding Cheney's close involvement with the scandal are very interesting.

It is hard to imagine how President Bush would fare if he were to lose both his "brain," Karl Rove, and his Vice President to indictments. With his approval ratings floating in the low 30's, a developing scandal like this, which would be "bigger than Watergate" if it directly involved Cheney, would be sure to further depress his ratings.

Democrats and various other Bush opponents are hoping for the worst-case scenario (or the best for them), which would involve the indictment of Rove, Libby, Cheney, and possibly even Bush himself (which is very doubtful). A scandal of sufficient magnitude could pave the way for Democrats to make great gains in the '06 elections, gaining enough of a majority to even make possible the option of impeachment proceedings.

At the same time, former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay has been arrested and is standing trial on charges of criminal conspiracy and money laundering. Although the prosecutor in the case, Ronnie Earle, has failed to make a very solid argument against DeLay, the stigma of indictment has already significantly harmed DeLay's career. Also in the past few days it has come out that leading Senate Republican Bill Frist, who is being investigated for insider trading, was in fact aware of his holdings of HCA Inc. stocks which he had claimed were in "blind" trusts. One of Frist's main defenses against the insider trading charges has been that he was unaware how much of any given stock he had, so it would have been very difficult to act on insider information to save money without knowledge of his specific stock holdings. These new details, however, show that Senator Frist was not entirely forthcoming, and make it more likely that he might be charged with wrongdoing.

Although indictments of such high-level officials as the Vice President and President are very unlikely, the combined political fallout of a Rove/Libby indictment, the ongoing Tom DeLay scandal, and the insider trading investigation of Bill Frist may combine to turn Congress against Republicans in '06 unless they find a way to turn things around.

A good first step towards regaining support might be to withdraw Harriet Miers as Bush's Supreme Court nominee and nominate a solid conservative that would energize the Republican base. The President has seemed so out of touch with Republicans lately, though, that no one can be sure exactly what he will do next.